May 11, 2026, 12:02 pm
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What happens when war becomes a casino?
With modern tools like prediction markets seeing bets being placed on everything from frontline movements to the success of failure of negotiations, it’s time to talk about the way financial incentives can shape strategic decisions and military campaigns.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (Partial):
Reporting on prediction market trades relevant to wars or crisis
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/01/nx-s1-5731568/polymarket-trade-iran-supreme-leader-killing
Goldenberg, Alex – Betting on War: Prediction Markets and the Corruption of National Security
https://warontherocks.com/betting-on-war-prediction-markets-and-the-corruption-of-national-security/
Israeli Air Force Major charged with using classified information for prediction market betting
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-air-force-major-charged-with-using-classified-info-to-place-bets-on-polymarket/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/06/polymarket-israel-iran-war-arrest
ISW Map edit incident
In November, an ISW Analyst Manipulated the Situation in Myrnohrad to Rig Map Bets
Polymarket gamblers threaten Israeli journalist over missile strike story
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/polymarket-gamblers-threaten-israeli-journalist-missile-strike-wager
Reporting on investigation into pre Iran war trading
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharyfolk/2026/05/07/who-cashed-in-on-trumps-iran-war-posts-doj-reportedly-investigating/
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/oil-price-bets-ahead-iran-war-news-totalled-7-billion-reporting-shows-2026-05-07/
Sample of Reporting on potential insider trading
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0p54j9r9vo
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge0grppe3po
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/25/trump-iran-oil-insider-trading
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concerns
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/doj-probes-oil-prediction-markets-iran-news-rcna344135
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-24/us-soldier-charged-betting-on-maduro-removal/106601200
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-charges-30-people-with-roles-global-insider-trading-scheme-2026-05-06/
Claim prediction markets may grow to $1T by 2030
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/14/prediction-markets-will-grow-to-1-trillion-by-2030-bernstein-says.html
Reporting on Betting on Ukrainian frontline movements
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkirichenko/2025/12/21/crypto-prediction-markets-are-betting-on-ukraines-front-lines/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/11/polymarket-gamblers-betting-iran-war-ukraine-news-truth
APRA – Superannuation statistics 2025
https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-publications/apra-releases-superannuation-statistics-for-june-2025
WSJ – Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11?st=ooWWeh&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
U.S. Senators banned from prediction markets trading
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/30/senate-prediction-markets-trading-ban-kalshi-polymarket.html
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or any other decision, evaluation, or similar.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Intro
00:00:54 — What am I talking about?
00:03:24 — this is not a financial advice
00:03:45 — insider risk 101
00:06:59 — tools of trade
00:13:29 — prediction markets
00:17:34 — why is this dangerous? Incentives
00:23:33 — working the example
00:39:35 — Why is this dangerous?
00:48:01 — What do you do about it?
00:52:57 — channel update
Content Creator – Perun
