May 3, 2026, 12:02 pm
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It’s not quite quite war, but hardly peace either.
So how did we get here, how do the incentives come together and where might things go from here?
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (Partial):
USA Carrier positions per TWZ Carrier Tracker (As at April 26)
https://www.twz.com/sea/carrier-tracker-as-of-april-26-2026
Visually confirmed loss data per @elmustek
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1INEmN33FspQm4NmYnr7IGbjKhYIkjCWkccz8xOCFKUw/edit?gid=1408377767#gid=1408377767
Statement by Lt. Gen. James Adams – Director, DNI
https://armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/lt._gen._adams_witness_statement.pdf
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/us-officials-say-iran-retains-significant-drone-missile-capability-despite-strikes-report/3911067
Global Oil Price Stats and reporting
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15d57pv925o
Trump claims hostilities in Iran have ended
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/01/trump-iran-war-hostilities-letter
Reference for K. Leavitt statement on the ceasefire
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-iran-trump-ceasefire-hormuz-attack-peace-talks-israel-rcna341361
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-us-ceasefire-2026/card/leavitt-cease-fire-holds-despite-iranian-attacks-in-strait-dQ2Tg82qwCUegSxacrQV
CRS – The Global Tanker Market: An Overview as it relates to sanctions
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47962
Reporting on Iran’s current governance
https://theconversation.com/who-is-calling-the-shots-in-iran-281066
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guards-take-wartime-lead-ensuring-harder-line-sources-say-2026-03-04/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgz7l5v03po
Reporting on Israeli estimates of Iranian Ballistic Missile inventories and production rates
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-assesses-iran-has-some-2500-ballistic-missiles-was-accelerating-production/
Reporting on potential extended blockade
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-tells-aides-to-prepare-for-extended-blockade-of-iran-da3be7a4
Reporting on negotiations and peace proposals
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-proposal-rejected-by-trump-would-open-strait-before-nuclear-talks-iran-2026-05-02/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/01/pakistan-backchannel-us-iran-deal-peace
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/27/iran-us-hormuz-strait-nuclear-talks-proposal-Pakistan
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/iran-war-trump-peace-deal-us-talks-stock-market-oil-prices-.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/12/jd-vance-says-no-deal-us-iran-pakistan-talks-islamabad
Ford to return home
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/29/uss-gerald-r-ford-aircraft-carrier
LUCAS
https://www.twz.com/news-features/lucas-kamikaze-drones-lauded-as-indispensable-by-u-s-admiral-in-charge-of-iran-war
Source for $25B USD cost estimate for Iran war (and clashing $50B figure)
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-war-iran-has-cost-25-billion-so-far-says-pentagon-official-2026-04-29/
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5857505-senator-angus-king-iran-war-bill/
Example reporting of strikes on Iranian missile related infrastructure
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/03/29/iran-ballistic-missile-sites/
IMF cuts global growth forecast
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/14/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-during-hormuz-blockade
Example reporting on Iranian economy
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604294396
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/24/politics/us-freezes-cryptocurrency-iran
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604249669
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Intro
00:01:08 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:07 — the Ceasefire
00:19:55 — Negotiations & Demands
00:28:35 — Status of Forces Iran
00:39:51 — Status of Forces: USA
00:48:11 — Taking Stock
00:52:56 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
