The economy is forecast to expand 1.1% this year on higher energy prices due to Middle East disruptions
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth outlook for Russia, citing higher commodity prices, while warning that the Middle East war is weighing on the global economy.
In its latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the IMF said Russia’s GDP is now expected to expand by 1.1% in 2026, marking an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points compared to its January estimate. The adjustment was driven by “higher commodity prices,” the report said, adding “the momentum” is expected to continue into 2027. Inflation is projected at 5.6% this year, down from 8.7% in 2025, and easing further to 4.3% in 2027.
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry has offered a more optimistic outlook, estimating GDP growth at 1.3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.
The revised IMF forecast comes as global energy markets have come under renewed pressure due to the US-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the region. The conflict has effectively choked flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route accounting for a significant part of global oil and gas supply.
The now paused war in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy. Growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 & 3.2% in 2027, down from 3.4% in 2025. Without the war, global growth would have been revised upward. Read more: https://t.co/5xMUE4scWOpic.twitter.com/4t2XXinozk
The IMF warned that disruptions to oil supply and the damage to critical energy infrastructure raise the prospect of a “major energy crisis” if hostilities persist. Countries heavily dependent on energy imports are particularly “exposed,” it said.
Against this backdrop, the fund downgraded its global growth forecast, now expecting the world economy to expand by 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.4% previously, before rebounding to 3.2% in 2027. It also expects slower growth in the US and a weaker dollar.
The fund has also cut its outlook for the euro area, saying the slowdown reflects the “negative impact of the Middle East conflict.” This adds to the “lingering effects” of higher energy prices since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, “dragging on manufacturing,” alongside pressure from the euro’s appreciation, the report said.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned last week that the conflict in the Middle East has delivered a major global energy supply “shock,” saying that world oil output has already fallen by 13%, with ripple effects across energy, commodities, and fertilizers.
