The supply shock brought on by the conflict is teaching Brussels a vital lesson – one it will have to learn sooner or later
There are moments in history when reality breaks through ideology with brutal clarity. Western Europe is living through one of those moments now.
The Iran war has sent shockwaves through global energy markets – but in Europe, the tremors feel like an earthquake. What was once dismissed as pessimism or “populist scaremongering” is now openly acknowledged at the highest levels of power.
With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, the EU faced a supply shock that promised to cripple manufacturing, ground airlines, hike up the price of food, spike borrowing costs, and send inflation spiraling back to crisis levels.
The crisis nobody can deny anymore
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has compared the looming burden to the darkest days of recent memory, warning it could be “as heavy as we recently experienced during the Covid pandemic or at the start of the Ukraine war.” Head of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde has admitted that the long-term effects are “probably beyond what we can imagine at the moment.”
Beyond imagination. That is where Western Europe now stands. And yet for millions of ordinary Europeans, the consequences are already painfully real: higher bills, shrinking savings, and a growing sense that something has gone profoundly wrong.
This is not just another cyclical downturn. It is something deeper – more systemic, more dangerous.
The greatest energy shock in modern history
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, did not mince words: “At this moment, we are losing 11 million barrels per day, which is more than the two major oil crises combined… the greatest threat to global energy security in history.” Unlike past crises, this one spared nothing. Oil, gas, diesel, jet fuel – everything was under pressure at once.
The illusion that Europe could insulate itself has collapsed.
For years, Brussels reassured Europeans that the continent’s limited reliance on Persian Gulf crude would protect it. But reality has a way of exposing half-truths. Europe depends on the Gulf for more than 40% of its refined products – diesel that fuels trucks, and jet fuel that keeps planes in the air.
Now those lifelines are tightening. Asian economies, far more dependent on the region, are bidding assertively, pulling supplies away from Europe. Tankers are changing course. Contracts are being rewritten. Prices are surging. And the EU – self-constrained, self-limited – has found itself last in line.
The consequences are immediate, tangible, and deeply personal. In some countries, diesel prices have nearly doubled since the start of the Iran war. Airlines are bracing for impact; Lufthansa is already discussing grounding up to 40 aircraft because of jet fuel shortages. The EU’s fossil fuel import bill jumped by €14 billion in mere weeks.
Behind these numbers are real lives. Farmers paying more to harvest their crops. Truck drivers watching margins evaporate. Families forced to choose between heating and other essentials. Businesses – already weakened – now pushed to the brink.
Higher costs in agriculture, transport, and manufacturing cascade through the economy. Prices rise everywhere. Growth stalls. Inflation returns with a vengeance.
Europe is staring into the abyss of stagflation – stagnant economies paired with relentless price increases, quietly eroding the savings and dignity of millions.
This is not just an economic crisis. It is a social wound. A psychological burden. Another chapter in a long decade of instability that has left many Europeans exhausted, anxious, and increasingly distrustful of those in power.
Leadership without answers
In times like these, people look to their leaders for clarity, for courage, for solutions equal to the scale of the problem. What they receive instead feels painfully inadequate.
Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has advised people to work from home, drive slower, and share cars. These are not solutions; they are coping mechanisms. They shift responsibility onto individuals while the structural failures remain untouched.
Even as shortages loom, Brussels insists on staying the course: a complete ban on Russian energy imports, no change to the plan to end Russian LNG imports by 2026, and pipeline gas by 2027. At the very moment when flexibility is needed, rigidity prevails.
Warnings are coming from all sides. Shell CEO Wael Sawan has said shortages could hit as early as April. Germany’s Economy Minister Katherina Reiche has cautioned that supply scarcity may emerge within weeks. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto confessed, “I’m forced to know things that don’t let me sleep.”
And still, the policy does not change. Even from across the Atlantic comes a blunt message. Donald Trump remarked: “You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”
Harsh, perhaps – but not entirely wrong. The EU has boxed itself in.
Yet across the continent, a different kind of leadership is beginning to emerge – one that dares to say what many already know.
In Germany, Alice Weidel of the AfD has articulated a position rooted in economic reality rather than political fashion: “Germany must return to an affordable and reliable energy supply to be internationally competitive… we must purchase energy resources… where it is cheapest, which is Russia.”
More and more Germans understand this. It is no coincidence that the AfD has risen to become the second most popular party. People are not embracing extremism – they are searching for common sense.
Central Europe’s warning – and its resolve
Further east, the message is even clearer, shaped by geography and experience.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has called for immediate action, urging Europe to lift sanctions on Russian energy to avoid “one of the most severe economic crises in its history.” Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has echoed this urgency, calling for restored pipeline flows and renewed dialogue with Moscow.
His words cut through the diplomatic fog. The EU must “ensure the supply of these strategic raw materials from all possible sources and directions, including Russia.” Otherwise, he warned, the current path resembles a “suicide ship.”
These leaders are often dismissed in Brussels. Yet they are the ones confronting reality head-on. They understand that geography cannot be negotiated away. That energy cannot be replaced overnight. That ideology does not heat homes or power factories.
The return of reality – and of Russia
The Iran war has accelerated a reckoning that was already underway. It has shown, with unforgiving clarity, that the EU cannot secure its energy future by excluding its most logical supplier. Russia is not a distant option; it is a structural pillar of the European energy system – one that has been deliberately removed without a viable replacement.
The result is what we see today: scarcity, volatility, vulnerability. Restoring relations with Moscow is no longer a theoretical debate. It is becoming an economic necessity.
And the momentum is shifting. Across Germany and Central Europe – Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Czechia – voices are growing louder, more confident, more aligned in their insistence on pragmatism over ideology.
A turning point for Europe
Europe now stands at a decisive turning point. One path leads further into crisis: continued shortages, declining industry, rising social tensions, and a widening gap between elites and ordinary people. The other path is more difficult politically – but far more sustainable economically. It requires acknowledging mistakes. Reopening dialogue. Rebuilding ties where they make sense.
Above all, it requires listening – to the citizens who are paying the price, and to the leaders who have the courage to speak uncomfortable truths. Change is coming. The Iran war may well accelerate it. Because in the end, reality is undefeated. And Europe, whether it admits it or not, is already on the road back to it.
