The platform pulled a bid on when the American airmen would be extracted from the country after a backlash
Prediction platform Polymarket has apologized for allowing users to place bets on whether American airmen from a downed US fighter jet would be rescued from Iran after facing backlash over questionable ethics.
On Friday, a two-seater F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over Iran, prompting the US to launch a high-risk extraction mission. US officials said that while one crew member was evacuated shortly after the crash, it took the US more than 24 hours to locate and extract the other, an operation that reportedly involved several helicopters and a CIA deception ploy.
Iranian officials, however, have denied that the operation was a success, claiming that Tehran destroyed a C-130 military transport plane and two Black Hawk helicopters, with videos circulating on social media showing the aircraft’s debris.
The uncertainty about the fate of the US service members prompted a now-deleted bet that allowed users to buy ‘yes’ or ‘no’ positions on whether the airmen would be recovered by April 3 or April 4, with roughly 63% of traders predicting a Saturday rescue.
Democratic congressman Seth Moulton was one of the first to flag the bet, writing on X: “This is DISGUSTING.” They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member. And people are betting on whether or not they’ll be saved.”
Polymarket promptly deleted the bet, replying to Moulton: “We took this market down immediately as it does not meet our integrity standards. It should not have been posted, and we are investigating how this slipped through our internal safeguards.”
Moulton, however, did not accept the apology as sufficient, saying that Polymarket’s “integrity standards are severely lacking,” pointing to dozens of other active war bets still visible on the platform.
He also took a swing at the Trump administration, recalling that Donald Trump Jr. “is an investor in this dystopian death market and may have access to intelligence that isn’t public yet.”
The episode is the latest in a string of controversies for Polymarket tied to the Iran war. According to several media reports, six suspected insiders collectively won $1.2 million by betting that the US would strike Iran on February 28 – the exact day coordinated US-Israeli airstrikes began – with all of the accounts funded within hours of the attack.
Israeli prosecutors separately filed indictments against an IDF reservist and a civilian for allegedly using classified military intelligence to bet on Polymarket during the Twelve-Day War in June 2025.
