March 30, 2026, 3:02 pm
When countries can fire off years of missile production in a matter of weeks, who fills the gap?
With the war in the Middle East seeing munitions expended by the thousands, that’s a question that’s likely to shape parts of the arms market for years to come.
And so today I look at some estimates of how the first few weeks of the war have burned through munition stocks, how nations have already started searching for replacements, and what that might mean for an air-defence market that was already struggling to keep pace with demands driven by the war in Ukraine and European rearmament.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (Partial due to late release)
Unless otherwise noted, arms transfer data per SIPRI
https://www.sipri.org/databases
RUSI – Macdonald Amoah, Morgan D. Bazilian and Lieutenant Colonel Jahara Matisek – Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurance
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/over-11000-munitions-16-days-iran-war-command-reload-governs-endurance
Reference for higher Tomahawk consumption estimate
https://www.twz.com/news-features/u-s-is-burning-through-tomahawk-cruise-missile-stockpile-at-a-alarming-rate-report
U.S. State Department – arms transfers and defence trade statistics FY2025
https://www.state.gov/releases/bureau-of-political-military-affairs/2026/03/fiscal-year-2025-u-s-arms-transfers-and-defense-trade
EU SAFE plan
https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/eu-defence-industry/safe-security-action-europe_en
US Advances 23 billion in arms for mideast countries – WSJ ( Perun note, I can only find specific announcements for a fraction of that amount)
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-news-2026/card/u-s-advances-23-billion-in-arms-for-mideast-countries-otQuGGrSLa0anJcm0Ucd
UAE FMS – THAAD
https://www.state.gov/united-arab-emirates-long-range-discrimination-radar-with-terminal-high-altitude-area-defense-integration/
UAE FMS – FS-LIDS
https://www.state.gov/releases/bureau-of-political-military-affairs/2026/03/united-arab-emirates-fixed-site-low-slow-small-unmanned-aircraft-integrated-defeat-system/
Kuwait FMS – LTAMDS
https://www.state.gov/releases/bureau-of-political-military-affairs/2026/03/kuwait-lower-tier-air-and-missile-defense-sensor-radars
NATO arms imports doubled in past five years with 60% sourced from the US
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250310-europe-us-arms-ukraine-nato
UAE use of Korean Cheongung-II
Korean Cheongung-II SAM Successfully Intercepts Iranian Missile Over UAE for First Time
Reporting on IRIS-T production
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/diehl-boost-production-iris-t-air-defence-used-ukraine-ceo-says-2026-01-22/
India orders S-400 missiles
India Orders 288 Anti-Aircraft Missiles for S-400 Air Defense Systems from Russia
RTX on production ramp targets
https://www.rtx.com/news/news-center/2026/02/04/rtxs-raytheon-partners-with-department-of-war-on-five-landmark-agreements-to-exp
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:11 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:57 — the "Squeezes"
00:06:47 — the Impact of Iran
00:26:16 — the Push to Localise
00:31:02 — Where Does This Matter?
00:32:17 — Air Defence Deficits
00:48:13 — Where Are We Going?
00:50:20 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
