One Polymarket user reportedly won $150,000 after making suspiciously accurate predictions about strikes last year
An Israeli military reservist and a civilian have been charged with using classified information to place highly profitable bets on Polymarket related to military operations against Iran last year, according to local officials.
In a joint statement on Thursday, Israel’s domestic security agency, Israel police, and the Defense Ministry said: “several suspects were recently arrested, including a civilian and reservists, on suspicion of conducting bets on the Polymarket website regarding the occurrence of military operations, based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed by virtue of their roles in the army.”
The officials added that following an investigation, the prosecution decided to indict a civilian and a reservist “on criminal charges for serious security offenses, as well as bribery offenses and obstruction of justice.” The statement did not disclose their rank or security clearance.
The Israeli military said the bets did not incur any operational damage, but called the incident a “severe ethical failure and a clear crossing of a red line.”
One of the defendants’ attorneys called their client “a highly regarded individual who has made a significant contribution to Israel’s security,” claiming that the charges were “improper” and constituted “selective enforcement.”
Earlier media reports claimed that a user going by the name ‘ricosuave666’ placed multiple bets in June 2025 with suspicious accuracy regarding Israeli military operations, wagering tens of thousands of dollars just before Israel’s opening strike against Iran on June 13. The total winnings reportedly reached around $150,000.
The bets concerned the timing of Israel’s surprise attack, which targeted Iran’s military installations, senior officials, and commanders, as well as nuclear infrastructure and scientists.
Polymarket, a US-based platform that allows users to bet on political and current events, has faced controversy before. In January, an unidentified trader reportedly turned a $32,000 wager into more than $400,000 by correctly predicting that the US would invade Venezuela and oust President Nicolas Maduro – placing the bet just hours before President Donald Trump ordered the surprise operation on January 3. No criminal charges related to the case have been publicly announced.
