January 18, 2026, 3:02 pm
Even before U.S. troops were sent in to Venezuela, the U.S. navy and coast guard had started targeted other, valuable assets – the Shadow Fleet tankers responsible for a share of Venezuela’s oil exports.
The so called shadow fleet has become a key feature of the system enabling exports of sanctioned or otherwise targeted oil from countries including Venezuela, Russia & Iran. This episode focuses on two recent events that might threaten its ability to operate effectively – U.S. seizures, and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks.
It also raises a question though – beyond the direct hard-power impacts of these moves, what are the potential implications for freedom of navigation, the norms of international shipping and trade, and what might that mean for a future conflict or crisis?
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Reading and Sourcing (partial):
UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea)
https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf
Office of the Staff Judge Advocate (INDOPACOM) – U.S. Position on the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2949&context=ils
Professor Andrew Serdy – US boards a ship sailing under a Russian flag: what we know and don’t know about the legal position
https://theconversation.com/us-boards-a-ship-sailing-under-a-russian-flag-what-we-know-and-dont-know-about-the-legal-position-272957
CSIS – What the Bella-1 Teaches Us About Targeting Shadow Fleets
https://www.csis.org/analysis/what-bella-1-teaches-us-about-targeting-shadow-fleets
UNCTAD – Handbook of Statistics 2022 – Maritime transport
https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tdstat47_FS14_en.pdf
UNHCR on the U.S. Blockade against Venezuela
https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/12/un-experts-condemn-united-states-blockade-and-aggression-against-venezuela
UK indicating belief they can legally act against shadow fleet tankers
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy8pn7jgy3no
Venezuela reopening wells after going to near zero
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venezuela-begins-reopening-wells-recover-crude-output-sources-say-2026-01-13/
Russian media on ship seizure
https://tass.com/world/2072749v
Shadow Fleet tanker hit in the Mediterranean
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-hits-russian-shadow-fleet-tanker-mediterranean-first-time-sbu-source-2025-12-19/
Reporting on Chevron operations in Venezuela
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-moving-fast-expand-chevrons-venezuela-license-energy-secretary-wright-tells-2026-01-16/
Jennifer Parker – Maritime Boardings and International Law in the Venezuela Context
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/maritime-boardings-international-law-venezuela-context
Tankers reflagging to Russia
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/russian-flags-proliferate-over-shadow-fleet-of-oil-tankers-41b0bed4
US files warrants for additional tankers
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-files-warrants-seize-dozens-more-venezuela-linked-oil-tankers-sources-say-2026-01-13/
Ukrainian or alleged Ukrainian attacks on merchant shipping in the Black Sea
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/01/ukraine-hits-another-shadow-fleet-tanker-off-turkish-coast/
Included article on the shadow fleet
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-agrees-to-tackle-russias-shadow-oil-fleet-sweden-says/
Caveats & Comments:
Nothing in this episode should be taken to represent an opinion or advice on any legal matter, including with regards to the potential application of domestic or international law to any of the events described or alluded to.
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:05 — What Am I Talking About?
00:01:51 — Sanctions & the Shadow Fleet
00:07:23 — the Venezuelan Blockade
00:21:52 — Case Study: Bella 1 00:28:36 — Next Steps
00:33:04 — the Ukrainian Effort
00:36:39 — the Economic of Unfree Navigation
00:45:06 — Free Navigation & the Future
00:50:30 — Who Wins and Loses
00:52:52 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
