Fyodor Lukyanov: Washington and Moscow are edging toward a deal

The next phase of the Ukraine conflict may be the last before a settlement

As expected, Tuesday’s five-hour meeting in the Kremlin produced no breakthrough. Moscow made it clear it will not compromise on its demand that Ukrainian forces withdraw from the remaining parts of Donbass under their control. Kiev, for its part, insists that any voluntary pullback is impossible. And it is doubtful the US administration could compel Ukraine to do so now, or perhaps ever. Which means Moscow’s alternative remains on the table: taking the territory by force.

US President Donald Trump prepared the ground by warning in advance that he would not set deadlines and could not promise results. This is uncharacteristic for him. It would be cynical to suggest that the American president is again giving Moscow time to further narrow Kiev’s room for maneuver, both literally and politically. Then again, perhaps the cynicism is not misplaced.

From the moment news broke that the envoys were heading to Moscow, it was clear that another round of talks would be required before anything concrete could emerge. The coming meeting will effectively be the fifth. And as long as diplomacy grinds forward, the military campaign will continue at full intensity. The negotiating phase will run alongside the fighting, not pause it. Exactly as predicted. Moscow will not accept a ceasefire until the parameters of a final settlement are agreed. Washington, for now, is committed in trying to reach one.

One detail stands out. The American delegation is flying straight home without stopping in Kiev or European capitals. That implies there is nothing yet to show. It also suggests that both Moscow and Washington intend to cut a deal directly, without the distraction of additional intermediaries.

Since February, the Trump administration has in practice acted as the central mediator, communicating closely and directly with the two sides. Western Europe is entirely absent from this configuration. Its involvement depends entirely on whether Kiev chooses to use it. For the European Union, which made the Ukrainian issue the organizing principle of its foreign policy, this is an odd place to end up: reduced to a tool rather than a participant.

Still, there is one encouraging note. There is a growing chance that the next military-political turn may be the last before the war ends.