September 28, 2025, 3:02 pm
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While most of the fighting and destruction of the war in Ukraine has been limited to Ukrainian and Russian territory, tensions between Moscow and NATO have always threatened to manifest beyond those borders.
This month, multiple incidents have demonstrated that threat clearly, from drones over Poland and Romania to MiG-31s allegedly intruding into Estonian airspace.
And so today we look at those incidents, the potential motives behind them, and how NATO has elected, or may elect to respond.
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Reading and Sourcing (partial):
UNSC session on Threats to International Peace and Security – Security Council, 9995th meeting
https://webtv.un.org/en/asset/k1y/k1ynx4wy8z
Eastern Sentry
https://shape.nato.int/news-releases/eastern-sentry-to-enhance-natos-presence-along-its-eastern-flank
Dutch MoD release on Polish drone incursion
https://english.defensie.nl/latest/news/2025/09/10/dutch-f-35s-shoot-down-russian-drones-over-poland
Reporting on the drone incursion into Poland
https://tvpworld.com/88855071/crashed-drones-found-in-12-locations-across-poland-after-russia-violates-airspace
https://www.euronews.com/2025/09/19/missile-debris-found-in-poland-week-after-russias-mass-airspace-violations-officials-say
https://theconversation.com/poland-responds-to-russian-drones-incursion-by-invoking-article-4-of-the-nato-treaty-what-happens-next-265051
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/poland-drones-shot-down-1.7629795
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/missile-debris-found-eastern-poland-military-police-say-2025-09-19/
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/polish-missile-likely-hit-house-during-russian-drone-incursion-says-minister-2025-09-17/
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250922-poland-will-shoot-down-flying-objects-clearly-violating-its-airspace-pm-says
Minsk Reports Transferring Data on Transit Drones from Russia to Poland
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/14/russian-drone-incursion-poland-nato-ukraine-europe
Reporting on claimed drilling platform overflight
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russian-jets-violated-safety-zone-drilling-platform-baltic-sea-poland-says-2025-09-19/
2023 discovery of KH-55 debris
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-object-found-polish-forest-was-russian-missile-media-2023-05-10/
Romania discovers drone debris 2023
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/06/romania-says-possible-drone-debris-found-on-its-territory-near-ukraine
Reporting on violations of Swedish airspace
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/snabbkollen/ryska-stridsflygplan-krankte-svenskt-luftrum
Reporting on the Russian MFA responding to the drone incursion
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/moscow-calls-summoning-of-its-ambassadors-in-europe-over-drone-incident-in-poland-demonization-campaign-/3692446
Poland warns Russia not to ‘whine’ if a Russian jet is shot down
https://www.euronews.com/2025/09/23/poland-warns-russia-not-to-whine-if-its-jets-are-shot-down-in-nato-airspace
Reporting on alleged incursion into Estonian airspace
https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/defence/nato-protests-russian-incursion-of-estonian-airspace#:~:text=As%20noted%20in%20NATO’s%20reports,on%20national%20quick%20reaction%20alert
source for some of the photos of MiG-31s
https://x.com/Forsvarsmakten/status/1969085627099394248
https://kyivindependent.com/how-russias-drone-incursion-into-poland-skirted-the-line-of-natos-escalation-policy/
Reporting on Peskov’s NATO at war with Russia language
https://kyivindependent.com/kremlin-claims-nato-at-war-with-russia/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:56 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:02 — Hybrid Warfare
00:07:08 — Foxhounds Over the Baltic
00:19:29 — Drones Over Poland and Romania
00:30:49 — Observations – NATO
00:35:06 — Responses and Evaluation?
00:49:52 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
