July 28, 2025, 3:01 am
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After more positivity in the past, in 2025 the tone from Russian figures about their economy has sometimes been notably more pessimistic – but that doesn’t mean Russia’s warfighting capacity is exhausted, far from it.
And so today we’ll cover some of what that means for the war, negotiations, and the impact of potential future U.S. sanctions and tariffs.
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Reading and Sourcing (incomplete due to late upload)
Oil pricing and FOREX rates per tradingeconomics.com
BNE – Russian overdue mortgages
https://www.intellinews.com/russian-overdue-mortgages-double-in-3m25-cbr-384046/
TASS on goal of a Soft landing for the Russian economy
https://tass.com/economy/1957311
Minister for Finance of Sweden – "Russia is lying about its economic strength…."
https://www.government.se/opinion-pieces/2024/07/russia-is-lying-about-its-economic-strength-sanctions-are-working–and-we-need-more/
EU’s new price cap and sanctions
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eus-new-russia-sanctions-aim-more-effective-oil-price-cap-2025-07-18/
Reporting on the Koala incident
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1152520/Explosions-reported-on-dark-fleet-tanker
Example reporting on Russian supply chain difficulties
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/06/24/russian-military-electronics-supplier-faces-shutdown-over-underpriced-state-contracts-a89556
Gazprom figures
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/russia-faces-gas-surplus-european-exports-collapse-eyes-data-centres-2025-06-24/
military recruitment payments
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/15/russia-spending-22m-per-day-on-military-recruitment-analysis-a88730
Example reporting on Ivanov and Svetlana
https://apnews.com/article/russia-timur-ivanov-defense-court-corruption-moscow-3597dae5523387892b851d71ddd22819
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/former-russian-deputy-defence-minister-is-sentenced-13-years-corruption-tass-2025-07-01/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/21/russian-minister-ex-wife-stirs-outrage-lavish-lifestyle/
Zelensky Backtracks on anti-corruption bodies:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9v9083lw3o
Russia cuts interest rates to 18%
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/25/world/europe/russia-interest-rates.html
Russian defence spending hits post soviet high (2024)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-hikes-national-defence-spending-by-23-2025-2024-09-30/
Featured article on National Wealth Fund depletion rate
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/06/09/russias-national-welfare-fund-at-risk-of-depletion-by-2026-economists-warn-a89395
Reporting on OPEC capacity and production decisions
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/opec-saudi-spare-oil-production-capacity-2025-02-04/
Johnson sees no immediate Russian sanction action
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-house-speaker-johnson-sees-no-immediate-russia-sanctions-action-2025-07-22/
Shadow fleet and sabotage reporting
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/11/germany-battles-to-secure-russian-shadow-fleet-oil-tanker-adrift-off-northern-coast
Labour shortages in Russia
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/09/taxi-fares-in-moscow-surge-amid-driver-shortage-a89745
Djankov & Golovchenko – "Who Benefits from Russia’s war in Ukraine"
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/who-benefits-russias-war-ukraine#
MPP Indicies
Reporting on potential coal sector bailout
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/07/18/russia-plans-800-million-aid-package-for-struggling-coal-industry-a89886
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:27 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:35 — Sanctions and the Analytic Window
00:06:29 — Energy Revenues
00:23:22 — the "What If"
00:28:04 — the Hidden Costs in Military Production
00:38:33 — Macro Indicators
00:44:37 — Labour Inflation
00:49:55 — the Winners and Losers
00:55:32 — the Soft-Landing Problem
00:57:03 — What Does This Mean?
00:59:45 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
