July 6, 2025, 6:02 pm
Sponsored by Odoo – https://www.odoo.com/r/ykC
Before Russia’s 2022 invasion, many NATO states spent less than 2% of GDP on defence. In the last few weeks, those same states agreed to more than double that target to 5%…kind of.
In this episode, I look a little deeper into what the allies actually agreed at the June NATO summit and what it might mean for the future of the Alliance, Russia, and U.S. – EU relations.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
The Hague Summit Declaration:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_236705.htm?selectedLocale=en
NATO’s role in capability development
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49137.htm
NATO agrees new capability targets
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_235900.htm
Defence Expenditures and NATO’s 5% commitment
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49198.htm
Unless otherwise noted, Military Purchasing Power Parity Multipliers per
https://militaryppp.com/blog/ &
Robertson, Peter .E., (2022). The real military balance: International comparisons of defense spending. Review of Income and Wealth, 68(3), pp.797-818
European Defence White Paper 2030
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/white-paper-for-european-defence-readiness-2030_en
Reporting on Spain and the 5% target
https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-spain-pedro-sanchez-tariff-a84ed280548742e2ba79822d08a36473
NATO Pipeline System
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_56600.htm
Eurobarometer data
https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3372
Kiel Institute Ukraine Support tracker
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker
Headline on Russian defence spending overtaking Europe
https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-defense-spending-overtakes-europe-study-finds/
Germany embracing the ‘Danish model’ of Ukraine support
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/01/14/7493578/
German planned long term ammunition order
Trump reportedly questioning whether the US should be bound by NATO spending targets
https://www.barrons.com/news/trump-says-us-shouldn-t-have-to-meet-nato-5-spending-target-df1d5398
Graph of Russian military spending ramp up per Pavel Luzin
Featured or relevant coverage:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/12/us-no-longer-primarily-focused-on-europes-security-says-pete-hegseth
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4en8djwyko
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-us-weapons-shipments-halt-review-48229eb7c814419631a16067a38d6a1d
https://www.politico.eu/article/reports-donald-trump-nato-members-increase-defence-spending/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2025/05/16/rubio-says-nato-members-are-set-to-agree-on-5-defense-spending-goal/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/blog/2016/mar/11/barack-obama-right-criticise-natos-free-riders-course-he-is
https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-grand-plan-meet-nato-target-13-5b-bridge-sicily-donlad-trump-silvio-berlusconi-messina/
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/6/19/spain-rejects-natos-5-defence-spending-hike-as-counterproductive
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/03/eu-closing-in-on-framework-deal-with-us-to-avoid-trump-50-tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/white-house-video-embraces-trump-daddy-after-nato-chiefs-remark-2025-06-26/
https://thediplomat.com/2025/01/the-us-pivot-to-asia-reborn-old-grand-strategies-new-challenges/
https://thediplomat.com/2025/01/the-us-pivot-to-asia-reborn-old-grand-strategies-new-challenges/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be
considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
00:57 — What Am I Talking About?
03:10 — Tensions & the 5% Figure
07:51 — the Summit and Formula
11:16 — That Does This Mean?
17:55 — Ukraine and This Agreement
22:51 — Mobility and Soft Spending
33:50 — Unambiguous Winners and Losers
38:12 — European Outlook
45:40 — the US Play
52:23 — So What?
53:22 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
