June 29, 2025, 6:07 pm
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The Kinetic phase of Israel and Iran’s recent war ended almost as suddenly as it began. US intervention was followed with a call for a ceasefire, a demonstrative missile attack by Iran, and then (after some very emphatic social media diplomacy) a ceasefire.
In this episode I want to take stock of what we’ve learned over the last week and the status of Iran’s remaining nuclear infrastructure.
What I also want to do though is focus on some observations not about the nuclear side of this war, but the impacts of the conventional one.
Iran’s model of deterrence clearly failed – and in this episode I ask whether consistent under-investment in the regular military and its Air and Air-Defence at the expense of the IRGC and its Ballistic Missiles and proxies mean that Tehran helped hand the Israelis rapid air superiority, and how that may shape the strategic balance and any negotiations in the days and weeks to come.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/c/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (Partial):
Economic Data per World Bank Group Data
https://data.worldbank.org/country/
Reporting on the radar strike after the ceasefire call
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-says-it-hit-iranian-radar-refrained-other-strikes-after-trump-call-2025-06-24/
Grossi on Iran being able to enrich again within months
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79qeqg89g2o
White House compilation of quotes on BDA of Iran’s nuclear sites
https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/06/experts-agree-irans-nuclear-facilities-have-been-obliterated/
Trump indicating he would consider bombing Iran again
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgenq599kwo
Iranian foreign minister admits serious damage to nuclear sites
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crmv3kp744ro
ISIS – Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/post-attack-assessment-of-the-first-12-days-of-israeli-strikes-on-iranian-nuclear-facilities
UNSC 1747
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/unsc_res1747-2007.pdf
Reporting on damage to Iran’s nuclear program
https://www.npr.org/2025/06/26/nx-s1-5443666/obliterated-damaged-inoperable-iran-nuclear-facilities
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-announces-israel-iran-ceasefire-2025-06-23/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/world/middleeast/centrifuges-fordo-damage-iran.html
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-23/satellite-images-show-damage-at-iranian-nuclear-sites/105449430
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/27/world/middleeast/iran-us-nuclear-weapons.html
Fate of Iran’s nuclear stockpile:
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/us/politics/iran-uranium-stockpile-whereabouts.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/24/jd-vance-trump-iran-nuclear-program
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/iaea-chief-returning-iranian-sites-is-top-priority-2025-06-25/
Trump on the U.S. receiving early warning of Iran strikes
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-iran-early-notice-qatar-attacks-us-base/
Trump posting Bomb Iran parody:
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/5367873-trump-posts-video-with-bomb-iran-song-amid-ceasefire/
Israeli media on operation "Narnia"
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/operation-narnia-irans-nuclear-scientists-reportedly-killed-simultaneously-using-special-weapon/
Included or relevant reporting:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8zv8j563po
https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-nuclear-science-attacks-e298f00ba261debba4499a48c9df8b3d
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/new-indications-for-irans-lack-of-domestic-uranium-resources-for-nuclear-po
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
01:41 — What Am I Talking About?
03:56 — Midnight Hammer
12:36 — the Qatar Attack
22:32 — the Ceasefire
26:50 — the Nuclear Dimension
37:36 — Towards Another Threshold War?
51:44 — the Russian Connection
56:57 — What Next
58:50 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
