June 23, 2025, 6:09 pm
Since 13 June, the long-running stand-off between Iran and Israel has escalated to sustained conventional conflict, with a sustained Israeli air campaign against targets within Iran itself, while Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israel.
It was a complicated military scenario even before the U.S. intervened directly against 3 Iranian nuclear facilities.
Today, I try and parse some of what we’ve seen so far, and what military observations and lessons we might (cautiously) draw at this early stage.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/c/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (Partial due to delayed release):
IAEA – Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015)
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-24.pdf
IAEA board of Governors
https://www.iaea.org/about/governance/board-of-governors
IAEA – Update on developments in Iran (June 22)
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-on-developments-in-iran-5
IAEA – Statement 13 June
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/statements/statement-on-the-situation-in-iran-13-june-2025
UNRWA Situation report #176
https://www.unrwa.org/resources/reports/unrwa-situation-report-176-situation-gaza-strip-and-west-bank-including-east-jerusalem
IAEA declared Iran in breach
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iaea-board-declares-iran-breach-non-proliferation-duties-diplomats-say-2025-06-12/
VC loss compilation work credited to Elmustek (@elmustek):
https://x.com/elmustek?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
CFR – What Are Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Capabilities?
https://www.cfr.org/article/what-are-irans-nuclear-and-missile-capabilities
Grossi on Fordow (2022)
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/22/middleeast/iaea-iran-enrichment-fordow-intl
IISS – Israel’s attack and the limits of Iran’s missile strategy
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2025/06/israels-attack-and-the-limits-of-irans-missile-strategy/
Relevance of Syria to the Israeli air war
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2025/06/17/why-assads-fall-made-israels-large-scale-air-war-with-iran-possible/
Dave from Warsaw Missouri
https://x.com/shayadave/status/1936288106988421358
TASS reporting on a claimed 5th F-35 shoot down
https://tass.com/world/1974913
Tyler Rogoway on Israeli F-15s
https://www.twz.com/17102/israel-is-treating-americas-throw-away-f-15d-eagles-as-new-found-treasure
CRS on Iranian nuclear program
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12106
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R40094
Included or relevant reporting
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/26/gazas-37m-tonnes-of-bomb-filled-debris-could-take-14-years-to-clear-says-expert
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/3rd-israeli-f-35-stealth-fighter-shot-down/ (the one featuring the crashed F-35 image)
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/514532/IRGC-strikes-hit-Aman-Mossad-headquarters-in-Israel
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iran-claims-it-fired-largest-missile-yet-with-1500-kilogram-warhead-in-latest-barrage/
https://www.twz.com/land/iran-just-used-ballistic-missiles-with-cluster-warheads-to-strike-israel
https://www.npr.org/2025/06/21/nx-s1-5440324/israel-iran-golden-dome
https://www.twz.com/air/su-57-felon-targeted-in-ukraine-strike-seen-in-new-higher-resolution-satellite-images
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-says-fall-irans-leadership-not-goal-could-be-result-2025-06-19/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/13/world/middleeast/iran-israel-strikes-nuclear-talks.html?smid=url-share
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-report-june-20-2025-evening-edition
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/18/how-has-iran-managed-to-pierce-through-israels-air-defence-systems
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:15 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:12 — 2023 & 2024
00:09:26 — Day 1
00:15:05 — the Air Campaign
00:27:37 — Iran’s Response
00:38:27 — Impact of the Air Campaign
00:39:31 — the Iranian Nuclear Program
00:49:35 — Israeli challenges & US intervention
00:57:39 — Lessons and Observations
01:01:51 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
