June 1, 2025, 6:02 pm
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Peace negotiations often get a lot of PR and those between Russian and Ukraine are no exception. But whether they actually achieve anything concrete is a different question.
In this episode then, I go back to what both sides have said about their war goals, their previous demands, and what that might tell us about their outcomes so far and what that might mean for the peace talks to come.
Patreon (note the first Patron special video has now been released):
https://www.patreon.com/c/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (incomplete due to late release):
Territorial control statistics per warmapper
https://www.warmapper.org/stats
Visually confirmed loss, committed resupply & captured equipment data per Oryx estimates
Reported April 15 draft Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees for Ukraine (per NYT)
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/a456d6dd8e27e830/e279a252-full.pdf
Putin suggesting the Istanbul document could be a basis for starting negotiations, suggesting its continuing relevance
https://www.euronews.com/2024/04/12/moscow-suggests-2022-draft-document-as-a-basis-for-future-ukraine-peace-talks
Russia – Draft treaty with the USA (December 2021)
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en
Russia – Draft "Agreement on measures to ensure the security of The Russian Federation and member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization" (December 2021)
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/
Ukraine peace formula
https://senegal.mfa.gov.ua/en/news/peace-formula-president-ukraine
Featured Ukrainian polling data:
https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1505&page=1 (Ukrainian assessment of Russian war goals)
https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1506&page=1 (Ukrainian views on potential peace concessions)
https://theconversation.com/are-ukrainians-ready-for-ceasefire-and-concessions-heres-what-the-polls-say-252025
Russian politician claiming "Ukraine risks losing Sumy, Kharkov, Odessa"
https://tass.com/politics/1966377
Russia demands US must stop arming Ukraine during any ceasefire
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-tells-un-west-must-stop-arming-ukraine-during-any-ceasefire-2025-05-30/
Kellogg describing Russian concerns around NATO enlargement as ‘ a fair concern’
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/05/30/trump-special-envoy-says-russian-concerns-over-nato-enlargement-fair-a89277
Reporting on Russian demands
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-ukraine-must-remain-neutral-there-be-peace-2024-11-07/
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250227-russia-says-talks-on-annexed-ukrainian-land-non-negotiable
Reporting on Russian budget and deficit
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-2025-budget-deficit-seen-rising-15-gdp-because-cheaper-oil-2025-04-30/
Zelensky on need to reclaim territory through diplomacy
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-liberate-territories/
Ukraine Macroeconomic handbook April 2025
https://kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/UA_Macro_Handbook_Apr2025.pdf
Featured reporting
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-wont-deploy-troops-ukraine-without-us-support-says-minister-luke-pollard/
https://kyivindependent.com/intelligence-shows-russia-planning-new-offensive-operations-in-ukraine-zelensky-says/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/22/russia-mocks-ukraine-during-direct-talks-raising-suspicion-of-bad-faith
https://meduza.io/en/news/2025/05/16/russia-reportedly-threatened-to-seize-ukraine-s-kharkiv-and-sumy-regions-during-istanbul-talks
Sobolev video clip on war goals
https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1925914295352562125
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Intro
00:01:07 — Summary
00:03:20 — Russian goals
00:13:47 — Ukraine
00:17:40 — Russia and NATO
00:26:21 — The Numbers
00:30:36 — Ukraine’s Challenge
00:37:43 — the Cost and the Balance
00:41:10 — Territorial Control
00:46:54 — Ukrainian Militarisation
00:56:13 — Peace Talks?
01:02:40 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
