April 13, 2025, 3:05 pm
In August 2024, Ukraine seized hundreds of square kilometres of Russia’s Kursk region in a surprise offensive. Now, more than six months later, the operation has mostly ended with a Ukrainian retreat to a small holding along the Ukrainian border.
In this episode we look at the close of the campaign, lessons arising from it, and ask what might be coming next amidst U.S. lead negotiations and evidence of coming Russian offensive efforts.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
Visually confirmed loss data generally per warspotting & Oryx as normal
General territorial control mapping:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/51.3382264/34.4551849
Percentage of regional control figures:
https://www.warmapper.org/stats
Kursk loss localisation figures:
https://x.com/naalsio26
Loss distribution maps per Lostarmor:
https://lostarmour.info/
defence mapping by @Playfra0
https://x.com/Playfra0/status/1907182777235112175
Civilian vehicle loss split by @AndrewPerpetua
https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1902364609446564027
wire laying UGV
https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1907232455456625103https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1907232455456625103
Carlson – Witkoff interview reported transcript
https://detector.media/withoutsection/article/239318/2025-03-23-transcript-of-steve-witkoffs-interview-on-the-tucker-carlson-show/
Reuters on Witkoff
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-envoys-embrace-russian-demands-worries-republicans-us-allies-2025-04-11/
The Birds becoming a brigade
Elite Ukrainian drone unit becomes combat brigade, triples size in major expansion
Reporting on Kursk withdrawal
https://kyivindependent.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-ukraines-kursk-gambit/
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-positions-in-kursk-oblast-crucial-for-possible-negotiations-blinken-says/
Russia planning to increase troops in Ukraine by 150,000
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-plans-to-increase-grouping-in-ukraine-by-150-000-soldiers-in-2025-ukraines-official-says/
Ramstein pledges
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg2q323lg3o
Brent crude price
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oilv
Urals reaches $53
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/russia-s-flagship-oil-urals-tumbles-toward-50-in-global-rout?embedded-checkout=truev
Russian Recruitment & Bonus Payments
https://x.com/jakluge/status/1911371520485568779
https://vk.com/wall-150272757_54052
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-beating-military-recruitment-goals-ukraine-war-bonuses-new-laws-2025-3
TASS on Russian UAS operations, Rubicon & Kursk
https://tass.com/politics/1898715
The Encirclement claim
https://kyivindependent.com/trump-claims-he-asked-putin-to-spare-surrounded-ukrainian-troops/
Ukrainian reporting on M2 repairs
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukrainian-defense-forces-master-and-speed-up-m2-bradley-repairs/
Other featured reports
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-officials-eye-longer-road-ukraine-peace-frustration-mounts-2025-04-01/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-russian-army-grow-by-180000-soldiers-become-15-million-strong-2024-09-16/
https://kyivindependent.com/trump-officials-say-ceasefire-unlikely-in-coming-months-reuters-reports/
https://www.businessinsider.com/pro-russian-officials-want-teenagers-voting-sham-referendums-occupied-ukraine-2022-9
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/10/russian-advances-in-ukraine-slow-down-despite-growing-force-size
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-spring-fighting-offensive-ceasefire-talks-49ee814cc4a8416c444ab7deae42488c
Ukraine’s growing military strength is an underrated factor in peace talks
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/04/03/russias-real-wages-up-65-in-january-as-growth-slows-a88590
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete examination of the topic and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other any other views and/or decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Care has been taken in compiling data, quotes, and other inputs from various sources but errors can occur. Quotes and included data should be considered illustrative, not definitive and their veracity should not be relied on.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:37 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:05 — Kursk Closes Out
00:11:37 — Tactical Observations
00:28:16 — Evaluating Kursk
00:35:24 — Signs of More to Come
00:45:51 — a Russian Offensive?
00:45:59 — Motive
00:47:58 — Urgency
00:50:51 — Means
00:58:25 — Will It Be Enough?
01:00:59 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
