April 6, 2025, 6:03 pm
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For decades the U.S. has been a leading force in building the global free trade system. Today, we discuss it’s effort to reshape it using tariffs and some very wonky math and what that move might mean for the world.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing :
U.S. "Reciprocal Tariff Calculations"
https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations
USGS – Mineral Summary 2023
https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2023/mcs2023.pdf
U.S. BEA – Services Traders
https://apps.bea.gov/scb/issues/2024/05-may/0524-profile-services-traders.htm
Trade Wars and How Nations Fight Them
US Consumer Impact
https://think.ing.com/articles/beautiful-tariffs-risk-turning-the-growth-outlook-ugly/
WH Deputy Press Secretary post
https://x.com/KushDesai47/status/1907618136444067901?t=9JG6Q5bhCP3VcQfTjAShlg&s=33
U.S. Trade Rep pages
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/switzerland
"Do not retaliate"
https://www.foxnews.com/media/treasury-secretary-bessent-tells-countries-not-retaliate-after-sweeping-liberation-day-tariffs
Polling on Trump policy areas and/or tariffs
https://apnews.com/article/trump-poll-immigration-tariffs-trade-b7a430909606d6b8b27cfbc5049a32b4
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/17/trump-tariffs-recession-poll
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2025/03/fox_march-14-17-2025_national_topline_march-19-release.pdf
https://www.reuters.com/default/trump-approval-falls-43-lowest-since-returning-office-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2025-04-02/
Polling on retaliatory tariffs
70% of Canadians support retaliatory tariffs on United States: poll
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/01/large-majority-of-europeans-support-retaliatory-tariffs-against-us-poll-finds
Lesotho
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/apr/04/lesotho-garment-workers-reel-trump-tariffs
European Commentary
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/trump-will-buckle-under-pressure-if-europe-bands-together-over-tariffs-german-economy-minister.html
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-vows-to-retaliate-against-trumps-20-percent-tariffs/
ASML exports to China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-22/asml-chief-sees-us-pressure-building-for-more-china-restrictions?embedded-checkout=true
US trade balance
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/what-to-know-about-the-u-s-trade-imbalance-in-charts-79b25c0bv
https://www.afr.com/politics/the-statistic-australia-will-use-to-avoid-trump-s-tariffs-20250203-p5l941
CSIS – "Mining for Defence"
https://www.csis.org/analysis/mining-defense
Allied Cooperation
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/us-and-australia-ink-critical-minerals-funding-pact-20240829-p5k6igv
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_25_563
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/us-pledges-786m-to-australian-rare-earths-and-lithium-projects/
Negotiations
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/vietnam-foreign-ministry-says-regrets-us-tariff-decision-2025-04-04/
featured articles
https://www.csis.org/analysis/balancing-ledger-export-controls-us-chip-technology-china
https://www.csis.org/blogs/trustee-china-hand/slamming-brakes-eu-votes-impose-tariffs-chinese-evs
"Elbows up"
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/28/canada-united-states-travel.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/27/canada-us-flights-down-trump
PRC Retaliation
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/4/china-hits-back-at-trump-tariffs-with-34-tax-on-us-goods-export-curbs
PRC, ROK & JAPAN Trade Ministers’ Meeting
https://www.wsj.com/economy/china-says-it-is-aiming-to-coordinate-tariff-response-with-japan-south-korea-c7a19540
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I note, as always, that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon in any way, including to inform any financial or other decisions, views, actions etc…
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Quotes and included data should be considered, at most, indicative.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Intro
00:00:33 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:41 — the Tariffs
00:12:52 — Why?
00:18:58 — Complications
00:25:51 — What Makes Effective Tariffs?
00:32:08 — Trade Warfare 101
00:34:10 — US Advantages
00:38:33 — US Vulnerabilities
00:53:58 — an Alternative Strategy
01:03:06 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
