December 1, 2024, 3:02 pm
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During the Cold war, the USA and USSR build up nuclear stockpiles of tens of thousands of warheads and developed a suite of potentially destabilising technologies.
Then, through a series of agreements (most recently New START), arsenals were dramatically cut while some types of system were heavily restricted or banned outright.
Now though, the treaty regime is breaking down. Russia closed to door on mutual inspections, ‘suspended’ the treaty in 2023 and the agreement as a whole is due to expire in Feb 2026.
With the caps on US and Russian nukes faltering, other nations pushing up warhead counts and technologies like MIRVs proliferating, today we’re going to talk arms treaties, missile math, and the future of nuclear strategic armaments.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
CBO – Planning U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces for the 1980s
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/95th-congress-1977-1978/reports/78doc232.pdf
US State Department – New START Treaty
https://www.state.gov/new-start/
New START Reported US Strategic Offensive Arms Figures
https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty-aggregate-numbers-of-strategic-offensive-arms-5/
https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/05-11-2023-FINAL-May-2023-NST-DATA-FACTSHEET-no-clear-page.pdf
Arms Control Association – New START at a Glance
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/new-start-glance
Putin signs bill to suspend new START
https://apnews.com/article/russia-us-nuclear-pact-suspension-ukraine-putin-e579b7562fb816d899e037d1d271a8c5
Fact Sheet – LGM-35A
https://www.afgsc.af.mil/Portals/51/Docs/Sentinel/LGM-35A%20Sentinel%20Fact%20Sheet%20cao%206%20Apr.pdf
Dr Sidharth Kaushal – Russia’s Sarmat Test Failure: Implications for the Strategic Balance
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-sarmat-test-failure-implications-strategic-balance
India, MIRVs & Agni-V
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/12/india/india-mirv-icbm-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/missile-dialogue-initiative/2024/04/india-shows-its-deterrent-holds-chinese-cities-at-risk/
The Bomb by Fred Kaplan
David Alan Rosenberg – CONSTRAINING OVERKILL CONTENDING APPROACHES TO NUCLEAR STRATEGY, 1955-1965
https://www.history.navy.mil/research/library/online-reading-room/title-list-alphabetically/m/more-bang-buck.html#rosenbauer
Paul Dibb – A new US, Russia, China nuclear arms race spells danger
Admiral Sandy Winnefeld (retired) – Bring Back the Nuclear Tomahawks
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017/may/bring-back-nuclear-tomahawks
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists – the Nuclear Notebook
CSIS Missile Threat – RS-28 Sarmat
CSIS Missile Threat – RSM-56 Bulava
Russia shows views of RS-28
https://www.twz.com/russia-releases-incredibly-detailed-views-of-its-massive-satan-missile
Poseidon
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/05/26/russias-doomsday-drone-prepares-for-testing-a70386
Nuclear weapon tests per year
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-nuclear-weapons-tests?time=earliest..1961
Andrey Pavlov and Anastasia Malygina Russian Perspective: New START and Beyond
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-01/features/russian-perspective-new-start-and-beyond
Federation of American Scientists – Status of World Nuclear Forces
DPRK MIRV test reporting
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cxx2g3524p2o
Included article on nuclear threats
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-nuclear-doctrine-changes-russia-ukraine-war-west-rcna180772
New Satellite Images Hint How Russian Navy Could Use Massive Nuclear Torpedoes (2021)
https://news.usni.org/2021/08/31/new-satellite-images-hint-how-russian-navy-could-use-massive-nuclear-torpedos
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:27 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:21 — The Cold War Arms Race
00:04:50 — Missile Tech
00:06:22 — MIRVs – Development & Fielding
00:08:40 — The MIRV Calculus
00:20:38 — "First Strike" Spoilers
00:23:31 — MIRVs – Restrictions
00:32:52 — Return Of The MIRV?
00:47:10 — The Next Generation?
01:02:23 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
