November 18, 2024, 3:04 pm
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From the very beginning we’ve know that the war in Ukraine would turn on not just battlefield outcomes and bravery, but policy decisions made in foreign capitals.
With the election of Donald Trump, it’s clear that US policy in Ukraine is about to shift. What is less clear is how and what the results will be.
And so today we discuss the closing moves of the Biden presidency and what some of the objectives and challenges might be for the Trump administration regarding Ukraine in 2025.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (to be expanded) :
World Bank Group – Ukrainian Third Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099021324115085807/pdf/P1801741bea12c012189ca16d95d8c2556a.pdf
RUSI – Overcoming the Challenges of Building a Future Force for Ukraine
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/overcoming-challenges-building-future-force-ukraine
Macron and Starmer on Ukraine support
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8dz0n8xldo
Biden authorizes Ukraine to uke long range weapons in Russia
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/17/politics/biden-authorizes-ukraine-missiles-russian-targets/index.html
JD Vance on Ukraine – At Munich
SENATOR VANCE DELIVERS A “WAKE UP CALL” TO MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE
Scholz calls Putin
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putins-views-ukraine-war-havent-changed-germanys-scholz-says-2024-11-17/
Zelensky says Trump Presidency means quicker end to war
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2024/11/16/ukraine-zelensky-trump-war/6321731774442/
Reporting on Zelensky – Trump meeting
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4906530-zelensky-us-trip-bipartisan-support-ukraine/
Pentagon funds remaining for Ukraine
CSIS (2023) on the impact of halting US military aid to Ukraine
https://www.csis.org/analysis/impact-ending-military-aid-ukraine-gradual-decline-then-collapse
Russia media segments translated and posted by Julia Davis / Russia Media Monitor
https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews
https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1509330152735584262
Two featured BI articles juxtaposing claims on Russian losses and recruitment
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lose-1000-troops-winter-war-three-fronts-uk-mod-2024-10
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-recruiting-30000-troops-a-month-ukraine-frontline-losses-analysts-2024-1
Ukraine 2025 budget
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-2025-budget-allocating-53-bln-defence-clears-first-hurdle-2024-10-31/
Reporting on frozen Russian reserves
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-where-are-russias-300-billion-reserves-frozen-west-2023-12-28/
Donald Trump Jr. on Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/11/10/donald-trump-jr-mocks-zelensky-allowance-run-out/
Australia to produce GMLRLS
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/09/lockheed-thales-team-to-produce-aussie-made-gmlrs-munitions/v
Trump names Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/11/nx-s1-5187098/trump-national-security-adviser-mike-waltz
Reporting on Putin demands to end the war (June)
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/11/nx-s1-5187098/trump-national-security-adviser-mike-waltz
University of Maryland critical issues polling
https://today.umd.edu/umd-critical-issues-poll-public-support-for-ukraine-jumps
Russian UN ambassador on peace prospects
https://apnews.com/article/trump-russia-ukraine-war-un-election-a78ecb843af452b8dda1d52d137ca893
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct, views, activities or any aspect of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or any matters in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:11 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:19 — The Dynamics In Ukraine
00:06:45 — The Lame Duck Period
00:09:03 — The Escalation Window?
00:19:44 — A Likely Outcome?
00:22:13 — Future US Policy
00:24:29 — VP
00:25:32 — Senate Leader
00:27:54 — National Security Advisor
00:29:46 — Secretary Of Defence
00:32:26 — A Scale On Ukraine Aid
00:34:49 — The Role (And Potential) Of Europe
00:44:19 — The US Policy Context
00:46:53 — The Risk Of A Ceasefire
00:57:30 — An Optimistic Scenario?
01:00:30 — The Points To Watch
01:03:25 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
