September 29, 2024, 3:04 pm
Ammunition availability can make all the difference in a war, but only if it makes it to the troops on the front, rather than being destroyed in storage.
Over the course of several days, Ukraine recently succeeded in striking two Russian GRAU arsenals deep in Russian territory and a separate depot and storage facility, causing massive destruction and destroying thousands or tens of thousands of tonnes of Russian munitions.
In this episode I ask how long-range drones were able to destroy what were meant to be, in many cases, hardened targets, why the bases may have suffered the damage they did, and what this may all mean for the war going forward.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Special plug for the Battletech fans in the audience – Tex Talks Battletech : The Turning Point at Twycross
Reading and Sourcing:
The War Zone & Maxar Technologies – before and after images of target sites
https://www.twz.com/news-features/satellite-images-show-massive-devastation-at-russian-ammo-storage-sites-struck-by-ukrainian-drones
Credit to @HartreeFock for his commentary on the construction phase of the Toropets magazines
https://x.com/HartreeFock/status/1837087448448352289
Credit to @Tatarrigami_UA and Frontintelligence insight for their work on Tikhoretsk
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1837359410479268180
Featured TASS reports
Reporting on Toropets
https://tass.com/politics/1844703
Claims of attacks on Ukrainian depots
https://tass.com/politics/1804883
Defence Express – identifying GRAU arsenals within 750km of Ukraine
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/assessment_of_other_key_grau_arsenals_as_big_as_in_toropets_within_ukraines_reach-11911.html
Estonian 30,000 tonnes at Toropets figure
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-loses-2-3-months-worth-of-ammunition-1726996045.html
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-drone-strikes-demonstrate-its-continuing-intent-to-fight-the-long-war-against-russia-239438
Additional featured imagery and coverage
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/satellite-imagery-shows-that-russian-depots-near-tikhoretsk-and-oktyabrske-have-been-almost-completely-destroyed/
Featured reporting
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/18/ukrainian-drone-attack-sparks-massive-blast-at-arsenal-in-russia
https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-damage-russian-arsenal-blew-up-earthquake-strength-2024-9
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-himars-help-destroy-20-depots-of-russian-artillery-ammo-says-ukraine-2022-7
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/china-made-drone-downed-eastern-ukraine-hnk-intl/index.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/24/ukraine-weapons-limits-biden-permission-atacms/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Any content relating to the conduct and/or activities of any person or character in this video is included for entertainment purposes and does not represent an assertion of fact on those matters or in relation to that person or character.
Timestamps:
00:00 — Opening Words
01:40 — What Am I Talking About?
02:06 — Russian Ammo Logistics & Storage
06:56 — Depots Of Interest
10:10 — The Attacks
16:10 — Anatomy Of An Explosion
29:14 — The Ukrainian Capitalisation
34:31 — Damage Assessment
42:21 — Implications
52:36 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
