September 8, 2024, 3:05 pm
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Since 2022, there have been wildly divergent predictions made about the way the Russian economy would hold up under pressure.
Now, deep into Q3 2024 I want to have a closer look at the Russian economy, sanctions, and the risks it faces. And for a change in perspective, we will do it primarily using Russian data.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (please be mindful with links as always):
Statement by Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina in follow-up to Board of Directors meeting on 26 July 2024 – https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=18870
Elvira Nabiullina’s speech at State Duma’s plenary session on Bank of Russia’s 2023 Annual Report — https://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/event/?id=18603
Bank of Russia Annual Report 2023
https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/49164/ar_2023_e.pdf
Rosstat – on industrial production in H1 2024
https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/112_24-07-2024.html
Featured interview with Belousov
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/6428575?ref=en.thebell.io
Russia stops disclosing oil product data
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/105511/
Russian claim of potential 6.8% manufacturing increase in 2024
https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/105607/
featured commentary on Russian economy featuring Russian data
https://en.thebell.io/central-bank-forecasts-suggest-higher-inflation-for-longer/
https://en.thebell.io/russias-wartime-investment-boom/
Russian economic reporting
https://tass.ru/ekonomika/19550039?ref=en.thebell.io
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-think-tank-warns-stagnating-industrial-output-investment-2024-04-27/
Reporting on payment issues
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russia-payment-hurdles-with-china-partners-intensified-august-sources-say-2024-08-30/
Russian gas flows per Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-may-pipeline-gas-exports-europe-jump-39-calculations-show-2024-06-03/
The Houthi tanker story
https://maritime-executive.com/article/houthi-attack-damages-shadow-fleet-tanker-carrying-russian-oil
UK vs the Shadow Fleet
UK Leads European Initiative to Combat Russia’s ‘Shadow Fleet’
US announces new sanctions
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/12/politics/us-russia-sanction-g7-summit/index.html
Russia ends subsidised mortgage program
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/russia-ends-housing-mortgage-subsidy-that-stoked-a-property-boom-20240702-p5jqid
Bond rates per
Western components in Russian systems:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/silicon-lifeline-western-electronics-heart-russias-war-machine/interactive-summary
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/07/10/western-parts-power-russian-missile-that-hit-kyiv-childrens-hospital-ft-a85669
Signing bonuses
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/24/europe/russia-moscow-troops-signing-bonus-intl-hnk/index.html
https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-authorities-will-begin-paying-city-residents-almost-20-000-signing-bonus-for-joining-army/
Samantha Gross and Constanze Stelzenmüller – Europe’s messy Russian gas divorce
Included, referenced or relevant reporting examples
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russia-s-military-spending-in-2024-estimated-at-140b-report-shows/3081698
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/soaring-wages-record-low-unemployment-underscore-russias-labour-squeeze-2024-06-05/
https://www.rferl.org/a/china-eurasia-power-of-siberia-mongolia-putin/33086686.html
Vitaly Yermakov on Russian oil revenues
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Follow-the-Money-Russian-Oil.pdf
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Also note that I have not independently verified any of the data or reporting presented in this piece, and would particularly note that significant amounts of data released by the Russian Government or related figures has been used which has not been subject to verification or significant scrutiny.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:49 — What Am I Talking About?
00:04:09 — The Russian Economy At A Glance
00:09:20 — Investment And Military Production
00:11:24 — Three Drivers
00:14:41 — Rostec And The Russian DIB
00:23:05 — Wartime Expenses
00:28:48 — Hydrocarbons
00:35:12 — Sanctions Pain
00:47:14 — An Economy Overheating
00:58:32 — What Does This Mean?
01:00:27 — The Danger Of Peacetime
01:04:12 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
