August 11, 2024, 3:02 pm
One of the constant features of the war in Ukraine to date has been a general environment of mutual air-denial. The VKS has been able to launch stand-off attacks using missiles, drones, and glide bombs (while Ukraine relies to a greater extent on drones and Storm Shadow/SCALP ALCMS) but neither side has been able to develop or sustain air superiority over the other’s territory.
But while that state has persisted for nearly two and half years at this point, that doesn’t mean the situation is static. Ukraine’s long range strike capabilities have improved, even as constant Russian attacks have driven major shortages in air defence missiles and systems in Ukraine. Partly in response to those supply challenges, we’ve seen various acts of creativity and innovation, from the use of FPVs as anti-air systems to the focus on a counter-air campaign.
In this episode, we look at the recent Air Defence efforts in Ukraine, ask how Russia and Ukraine have approached the air defence problem, and what those observations might offer in terms of lines of inquiry for other nations.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing (only partial due to late release, will be updated 13/08):
FPV v ISR drone engagements
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-fpv-drones-shot-down-two-reconnaissance-uavs/
Reporting on the use of ultralight aircraft to hunt drones
https://www.twz.com/air/ultralight-drone-hunting-planes-now-in-use-in-ukraine
RUSI – The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence
https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdf
Patriot TEL loss image (as others, taking from visually confirmed loss database)
https://postlmg.cc/Th15s6RY
Russia claiming Patriot TELs hit near Odesa
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/21297189
Ukraine receives first F-16
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1p72wlwo
Ukrainian claims relating to Patriot TEL decoys
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-hit-mock-ups-during-recent-attacks-on-airfield-patriot-launchers-ukraines-air-force-says/
Included article on the Yak-52 of Odesa
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/07/14/isnt-it-time-to-shoot-him-down-russians-grow-frustrated-with-ukraines-yak-52-drone-killer/
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:11 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:14 — Air Defences & The War Of Attrition
00:03:51 — Losses & Replacements
00:10:28 — Assessing Strain
00:12:53 — Ukrainian Usage
00:28:54 — Russia
00:50:54 — Converting Intelligence To Kills
00:59:17 — Conclusions
01:00:56 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
