July 28, 2024, 3:02 pm
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Two weeks ago, we looked at estimates of Russian equipment losses in Ukraine and the mounting issues of storage depletion and equipment quality. (https://youtu.be/xF-S4ktINDU)
However, in a war like this, equipment losses take on most of their strategic relevance when they’re considered in relative terms. That is, who is going to start feeling the pain from materiel shortages first, and how may it shape the wider war.
So, as promised, today we look at Ukrainian equipment loss estimates, discuss the potential impact of changing equipment quality, and dive a little deeper into a few key equipment categories and the changing nature of the force
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other decisions or purposes
Sources & Reading:
This video is primarily data-centric so I will include relevant notes there up front
The primary source for visually confirmed losses and equipment commitments remain the relevant Oryx databases – this is done to ensure that data comes from a consistent source across videos. Sense checking can be done against other VC database efforts, including Warspotting and Lostarmour in the case of losses, and national announcements for equipment pledges.
Relevant news articles featured or other relevant pieces are also included below:
Germany and Slovakia work to extend repair hub beyond 2024
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/05/17/germany-slovakia-work-to-extend-repair-hub-for-ukraine-beyond-2024/
Russia’s demilitarisation headline from June 2023
https://tass.com/politics/1634505
CV-90 supply
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/06/12/netherlands-to-supply-first-dutch-built-cv90-ifvs-to-ukraine-in-2026/#:~:text=PARIS%20%E2%80%94%20The%20Netherlands%20will%20deliver,the%20government%20said%20June%207.
Ukrainian pilots training on Gripen – 2023
https://www.twz.com/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-will-get-training-on-swedens-jas-39-gripen
Denmark and Netherlands announce 14 Leo 2A4s will be delivered within weeks
https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-netherlands-say-14-leopard-tanks-will-be-dispatched-to-ukraine-within-weeks/
Spain to deliver HAWK
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/spain-to-reinforce-ukraine-s-air-defense-with-hawk-air-defense-systems-in-september/
France to deliver SPGs
https://apnews.com/article/france-ukraine-ammunition-howitzers-af44ababeef42de98170660cc1753b77
Ukrainian MoD on equipment restoration
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraines_defense_ministry_reports_1500_pieces_of_equipment_returned_to_the_army_including_armored_vehicles-11086.html
Ukraine to create new brigades
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/10/7455192/
Ukrainian General on Equipment shortages
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/10/ukraine-will-hold-if-it-gets-the-arms-it-needs-says-a-top-general?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR1zsdvuygiOycSW9aHdiS0D1K0Wj4xPzTfZhd05V3iy0WFWMH2zwUYLN_g_aem_ASt-eCh1wQ7gs7PUOSlFQaRnNg6sIcYo12LYbZIDVBoIat8HYv683Mj9BVWvMckeggjmbXI8AZV5-Ainv60EBhSD
Finland announcing another aid package – sans details
https://kyivindependent.com/finland-sends-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-worth-over-200-million/
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:53 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:12 — Assessing Ukraine & Russia
00:06:47 — The Quality Question
00:17:51 — The Question Marks: Domestic & Captured
00:19:38 — Losses
00:26:04 — Inputs
00:30:53 — MBTs
00:36:27 — IFVS & APCS
00:45:04 — Aircraft
00:54:56 — Changing Force Composition
01:01:07 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
