The vice president has the edge over Trump in certain respects but struggles in others
After President Joe Biden stepped aside from the 2024 presidential election, a wise decision given his disastrous poll numbers and after a pitiful debate performance versus former President Donald Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris now appears to be taking the Democratic Party’s reins.
The California native, former prosecutor, senator, and failed 2020 presidential candidate has now taken over the Biden campaign’s apparatus and has secured most of the names necessary to take the nomination for president at the Democratic Party’s National Convention next month.
She appears to be seen as a step up from Biden, with the latest NPR/PBS/Marist poll showing Trump ahead by just one point, though within the survey’s 3.5 percentage point margin of error. Another Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday has Harris at 44% to Trump’s 42% in a head-to-head, though within that poll’s three-point margin of error. Finally, a Morning Consult poll has Harris behind Trump by just two points, compared to Biden’s then-six-point deficit.
The question of her running mate is in the air but Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro are the favorites, according to AP.
The key question now is whether Harris can defeat former President Trump. There are some compelling arguments for and against, with a slight edge to her disadvantage.
On the positive side, the Democrats are eager to move past recent divisions and rally behind Harris. The party’s national convention is approaching and the election is just over 100 days away. Harris, as the first woman, black, and South Asian vice president, generates significant excitement. Her campaign raised $81 million within 24 hours of Biden’s announcement, reflecting strong support.
Harris, at 59, contrasts sharply with Biden’s 81 years, addressing concerns over age and cognitive acuity. Trump’s own gaffes and advanced age (78) make this a significant issue.
Despite Trump’s resilient MAGA base, he remains broadly unpopular. The Hill and Decision Desk HQ polling average shows 53% of Americans view him unfavorably. His loss of the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020, along with his being linked to the Capitol riot and to various legal issues, make him a vulnerable opponent. Democrats believe Harris can effectively make the election a referendum on Trump.
Harris has been at the forefront of defending reproductive rights since the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs Wade in 2022. This is a strong campaign issue for Democrats, with the abortion-rights side winning every statewide vote on related measures. Her potential to be the first female president sharpens the abortion debate.
On the negative front, Harris has low favorability ratings, with 56% of Americans viewing her unfavorably. This is worse than Trump’s ratings and suggests a lack of broad appeal. An Economist/YouGov poll showed twice as many independents viewed her unfavorably as favorably.
Harris’ 2020 presidential campaign was underwhelming. She struggled to gain traction and ultimately withdrew before the Iowa caucuses. Critics worry that the same issues – questions of authenticity, voter connection, and staff infighting – could resurface.
Her candidacy raises questions about whether America is ready to elect a black woman as president. While Obama broke the racial barrier, sexism remains a challenge. Harris faces attacks that her supporters argue reflect a double standard, contributing to her low approval ratings.
Immigration remains a significant vulnerability for Democrats, and Harris is closely linked to it due to her role in addressing migration from Central America. Despite improvements, unauthorized border crossings remain a contentious issue. Trump and the GOP are likely to exploit this association.
Her path to the presidency is bolstered by party unity, her unique candidacy, and Trump’s vulnerabilities. However, her low favorability ratings, past campaign struggles, potential voter biases, and association with immigration challenges pose significant obstacles. Given the latest antics with Trump, he seems to have the clear edge at this point.
