July 14, 2024, 3:01 pm
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The war in Ukraine has long become one of attrition and endurance, where the status of the competing forces is arguably more important than individual pieces of terrain changing hands.
In this piece, leveraging the work of various people and sources, we look at what we can determine about the status of Russian equipment stocks and active vehicle fleets in 2024, and try to project potential paths forward and establish a baseline for comparing against Ukrainian forces in a coming episode.
Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU
Reading and Sourcing:
Given the topic, I think it only right to first acknowledge some of those whose data and work have been used in this work and in the work of others:
Covert Cabal (including his most recent feature on RU tank storage levels)
HighMarsed (@HighMarsed)
https://x.com/HighMarsed
Jompy (@Jonpy99)
https://x.com/Jonpy99
AS-22 (@AS22_im) for GBAD counts
https://x.com/AS_22im/status/1811989654746595437
As well as others that I have mentioned in the past or in this video
Plus, of course I need to flag the value of the work of the VC loss database teams behind Oryx, Warspotting and Lostarmor (which I have referenced in several videos as a check against other data sets
Other relevant sources:
Baseline pre-war equipment figures per Military balance for commonality with other episodes
IISS – Russian T-90m Production
https://www.iiss.org/en/online-analysis/military-balance/2024/06/russian-t-90m-production-less-than-meets-the-eye/#:~:text=These%20figures%20suggest%20an%20average,when%20it%20launched%20its%20assault.
Dr. Jack Watling and Gary Somerville – A Methodology for
Degrading the Arms of the Russian Federation
https://static.rusi.org/methodology-degrading-arms-russia-rusi-op-june-2024.pdf
Dr Jack Watling – In Ukraine, Russia is Beginning to Compound Advantages
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-russia-beginning-compound-advantages
Russian media on threat posed by Finland in NATO
https://tass.com/defense/1721741
https://tass.com/politics/1786405
Russian warning of ‘proportional response’ to NATO in Finland
https://tass.com/politics/1775459
Referenced imagery/reporting on Russian presence on Finnish border
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-has-moved-almost-all-forces-from-finlands-vicinity-to-ukraine-media-report/
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/80-of-the-russian-troops-from-the-border-with-finland-were-transferred-to-ukraine/#:~:text=by%3A%20Yle%20magazine-,80%25%20of%20the%20Russian%20troops%20from%20the%20border,Finland%20were%20transferred%20to%20Ukraine&text=Russia%20has%20deployed%20most%20of,with%20the%20Finnish%20newspaper%20Yle.
Featured PZH-2000 image and reporting on hedgehog armour
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/11/29/hedgehog-armor-saves-ukraines-german-built-super-howitzer-from-russian-kamikaze-drone/
T-80 Image compilation
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/tanks_overgrown_with_weeds_being_taken_from_storage_in_russia_how_long_it_takes_to_restore_them-3173.html
Reporting on usage of BTR-50
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/05/20/when-a-70-year-old-russian-btr-50-attacks-ukrainian-troops-its-bad-news-for-the-whole-russian-war-effort/
M-46 image included
https://x.com/war_noir/status/1805597359067328659?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1805597359067328659%7Ctwgr%5E88434fae75d37e99046b8ec8ecb8e3fd4bf83d11%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.defence-ua.com%2Fanalysis%2Fthe_russian_military_use_rare_korean_130_mm_projectiles_for_the_stalin_era_m_46_gun-10999.html
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:19 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:35 — Losses
00:13:49 — Does Quality Matter?
00:17:59 — Storage
00:37:45 — Production
00:42:30 — Production & Reactivations
00:53:46 — Trend And The Evolving Force
00:57:30 — The Path Forward
01:03:07 — Channel Update
Content Creator – Perun
