As China ramps up its air power, India is eyeing Russia’s most advanced warplane while racing to develop its own fifth-generation jet
The British F-35B fighter jet which made an emergency landing at Thiruvananthapuram in the southern Indian state of Kerala nearly four weeks ago and has been stranded since then is finally being repaired by a team of UK specialists. If the effort fails, the aircraft will be dismantled and transported – likely in a C-17 Globemaster.
The incident was closely observed by global and Indian security establishments, highlighting the complexity of the F-35 and its reliance on specialized equipment and personnel. Dismantling an F-35 is a complex process involving detailed logging and security protocols to prevent data breaches.
The F-35’s misfortune in India attracted attention for several reasons. Just two months earlier, India and Pakistan were engaged in a four-day military standoff, which underscored the importance of air power. Both sides made competing claims of downing each other’s aircraft.
Amid the tension, Pakistan announced it would begin acquiring around 40 Chinese fifth-generation J-35A fighters as early as August 2025. Reports claimed that Foreign Minister and Deputy PM Ishaq Dar finalized the logistics and financing of the deal during a post-ceasefire visit to China. However, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif denied the deal had been finalized, dismissing the reports as “media chatter.”
If realized, the J-35 deal would mark China’s first export of its kind. It could also include the KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft and HQ-19 ballistic missile defense systems. Some reports suggest a nearly 50% discount, valuing the package at approximately $4.6 billion. A key question remains: How would a financially struggling Pakistan, which is reliant on IMF loans, afford such an expensive acquisition? Though speculative for now, China’s potential J-35 export would be a milestone for its defense industry. Yet, only around ten have been built so far, and Chinese induction begins only this year. Earlier delivery timelines indicated 2029.
Should Pakistan acquire the J-35, it would alter the subcontinent’s air dominance equation. This development could pressure India to expedite both the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), currently expected by 2035, and secure an interim fifth-generation platform – thus sparking a growing debate.
What’s the deal with fifth-generation fighters?
Fifth-generation aircraft were pioneered by Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 Raptor in 2005. They are built for network-centric combat and feature low observable signatures using advanced materials and shaping, and employ multifunction AESA radars, low-probability-of-intercept capabilities, and IRST sensors for 360-degree situational awareness. Advanced avionics relies on high-speed integrated circuits and data buses. The combination aims to provide ‘first-look, first-shot, first-kill’ capability.
The fifth-generation jets have integrated EW systems, navigation, communication, vehicle health monitoring, and fiber-optic data transmission. Thrust-vectoring improves maneuverability and shortens take-off and landing distances. Supercruise is standard. Radar cross-sections are minimized across a broad frequency spectrum.
The primary weapons are carried in internal weapon bays. Signature-reduction techniques include special shaping approaches, thermoplastic materials, extensive structural use of advanced composites, conformal sensors, heat-resistant coatings, low-observable wire meshes to cover intake and cooling vents, heat ablating tiles on the exhaust troughs and coating internal and external metal areas with radar-absorbent materials and paints.
Some are very expensive: The F-22 costs around $227 million, and the F-35 around $100 million per unit, despite mass production.
Other fifth-generation fighters include Russia’s Su-57 and China’s J-20. The J-20 has been flying since 2011 and entered service in 2018. China now operates nearly 300. The J-31 (now J-35) first flew in 2012 and is expected to enter service in 2025.
South Korea’s KF-21 Boramae, built for the Korean and Indonesian air forces, has stealth features but currently carries weapons externally. Internal bays are expected in the KF-21EX version. The first flight was in July 2022, with six prototypes built so far. Service entry is scheduled for 2026.
Turkey’s TAI Kaan, with BAE Systems as the subcontractor, had its maiden flight in February 2024. Only one aircraft exists, with service induction expected by 2030.
The Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) – a UK-Japan-Italy initiative – aims to develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter by 2035. In Europe, Dassault, Airbus, and Indra Sistemas are working on FCAS to replace the Rafale and Typhoon fleets by 2040.
Stealth aircraft and stand-off weapons
The Ukraine conflict and the recent India-Pakistan flare-up have demonstrated the operational value of long-range stand-off weapons. The use of Russian Kha-series missiles (Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, Iskander), the R-37M, Indo-Russian BrahMos, French SCALP-EG, and the Chinese PL-15 were all closely watched.
In these conflicts, the adversary’s aircraft were forced to use stand-off weapons both for offensive and defensive purposes. One’s own aerial assets also have to be operated at very safe distances to avoid long-range surface-to-air missiles such as the S-400.
Stealthy fifth-generation aircraft can get closer to the target and add stand-off distance to the long-range weapon. These warplanes can move closer to the border or penetrate into an adversary’s territory without being seen, and thus deliver weapon loads on targets and return unharmed. Similarly, they will have the advantage in aerial engagements with the ability to shoot and scoot without being seen.
Future air warfare will emphasize Very Long Beyond Visual Range (VL-BVR) combat and ground engagements. Though anti-stealth radar systems (like Russia’s Nebo-ME, China’s JY-27V, and India’s Surya) are in development, stealth remains a top-tier capability. B-2 bombers reportedly entered Iranian airspace undetected. Russia is building the PAK DA stealth bomber; China has the H-20. Sixth-generation fighters such as the F-47 and China’s J-36/J-50 are also under development.
India’s AMCA program
New Delhi is actively working on its own fifth-generation jet. India’s AMCA will be a stealth, multirole, single-seat, twin-engine, air superiority fighter with ground-strike, Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) and Electronic Warfare (EW) missions. Designed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), it will be built by a public-private joint venture. The initial development cost is estimated to be around $2 billion. In March 2024, the project received approval from India’s Cabinet Committee on Security for the prototype development. Mass production is expected to begin by 2035.
The development of AMCA will take place in two phases, AMCA Mk-1 and AMCA Mk-2, which would majorly differ in the indigenous content and futuristic features. Mk-2 will focus more on stealth, EW, and futuristic pilot-AI interface. The AMCA Mk-2 will have Directed Energy Weapon (DEW) and more powerful thrust-vectored engines. It will also incorporate sixth generation technologies. The aircraft will one day replace the Sukhoi Su-30MKI of the Indian Air Force.
DRDO aims for prototype rollout by 2027, first flight in 2029, and certification by 2032. Five prototypes are planned, each costing around $120 million and spaced eight to nine months apart. The IAF plans to procure 125 aircraft.
The government has yet to finalize a production partner. The ADA prefers private-sector involvement rather than Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), the government-owned defense manufacturer due to its “poor delivery track record.” The ADA’s push for changing the production partner is aimed at avoiding any further delays following setbacks from development funding and delays in clearance from the US government for license production of engines. The private sector partner would be responsible for development, production and lifetime maintenance of the jet.
In May 2025, the Defense Ministry approved the AMCA execution model. In June, the ADA issued an EoI inviting public and private Indian firms – solo or as consortiums – to participate. The proposal deadline is August 16, 2025. India is also in talks with global firms for co-development of the AMCA engine, seeking full intellectual property ownership.
Does India really need an interim fifth-gen fighter?
There is growing consensus that India must acquire an interim fifth-generation aircraft. However, options are limited.
President Donald Trump announced that the US is willing to offer the F-35, but it seems that no formal dialogue has begun. The US earlier refused NATO ally Turkey, because like India, Ankara had acquired the S-400 air defense system from Russia. The S-400 reportedly has sensors that will be able to record the F-35’s electronic signature. Also, the US prefers that India first buy a fourth-generation aircraft in the MRFA competition before the F-35 can even be considered. Clearly, there are complex geopolitics at play.
India remains cautious about US pressure and geopolitical unpredictability – especially as Washington strengthens ties with Pakistan. These factors make the F-35 offer unlikely or impractical.
The Su-57 is a more viable candidate. It is combat-tested in Syria and Ukraine. Russia has offered to set up Indian production and share technology.
The Su-57 evolved from the Indo-Russian FGFA project (2007), which itself derived from Russia’s PAK FA program. India exited in 2018 due to concerns over cost, performance, and work-share imbalance.
Since then, Sukhoi has continued Su-57 development. The export variant, the Su-57E, debuted at MAKS 2019. It has since appeared at several global airshows, including in China and India.
Russia has produced around 42 Su-57s and ordered 30 more. The estimated cost ranges from $35-50 million, potentially $60-75 million with local production – still cheaper than the F-35.
Russia is also developing the Su-75 Checkmate (LTA) – a single-engine, AI-enabled fighter meant to compete with the F-35 and J-35. It had its maiden flight in 2024, with induction targeted for 2027. The Su-75 is intended to compete with fifth-generation fighters like the F-35 and China’s Shenyang J-35. The aircraft is designed with AI integration for enhanced capabilities.
Russia has also offered to upgrade the Su-30 MKI to Su-35 technology standard, or make Su-35S in India with full Transfer of Technology. Also on offer is the Russian stealth drone Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B which forms Manned Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) with Su-57, and the long-range R-37M AAM.
Challenges remain: Su-57 production is slow but increasing. Russia remains focused on the Ukraine conflict. Sanctions complicate payments. India’s oil imports have worsened the trade balance, though it is easing with falling prices. The IAF also already operates a 60% Russian fleet and may wish to diversify.
With China’s air capabilities expanding rapidly, regional players such as Japan, South Korea, and India must invest in advanced fighters to maintain deterrence. China’s growing lead may soon become insurmountable.
The F-35 is not on the table. The Su-57 is a time-sensitive, cost-effective option that will be cheaper. The existing Russian aircraft production lines will be useable to some extent. The decision may anger the Americans, but that is not new.
GCAP could be viable long-term, but its partners are US allies and may align with US platforms such as the Boeing F-47.
For India to be part of the big league, the AMCA must succeed. In addition to two squadrons of Su-57, it may be worthwhile to quickly build a large inventory of 4.5-generation fighters such as the LCA Mk2 and Rafale, and get long-range air-to-surface missiles (BrahMos II) and longer-range AAMs like the Astra III or the Russian R-37M.
India must avoid reactive decisions – but the time to act is now.
