Ukraine’s summer of losing ground: Here’s how Russia is cracking the front line

Behind the quiet gains and flanking maneuvers, a bigger shift may be underway

Over the past month, Russia’s summer campaign has maintained the methodical pace set in May and June – deliberate, grinding, but steadily effective. In total, Russian forces have seized roughly 500 square kilometers of territory – three times more than during the same period last year. While the advances may appear modest on the map, they reflect a consistent application of pressure along multiple axes and a broader shift in battlefield momentum.

Active fighting has unfolded across four key sectors, stretching from the northern borderlands near Sumy to the southern reaches of the Zaporozhye front. Each offers a distinct tactical picture, yet together they form a coherent narrative of Russia’s evolving strategy. Below, we examine the month’s developments, front by front – from north to south.

Sumy axis: Ukrainian counterattacks stall

Russian forces continue to push forward along the Sumy axis, working to establish a buffer zone on the Ukrainian side of the border with Russia’s Kursk Region – directly across from last year’s staging area near Sudzha.

Faced with a potential threat to the regional capital of Sumy, Ukrainian command was forced to redeploy units from other sectors and pull reserves into the area. In late June, the Ukrainian army launched a series of counterattacks near Alekseevka and Kondratovka, aiming to squeeze the Russian bridgehead from the flanks or potentially sever it altogether.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army has retained a presence in Tetkino – the only settlement on Russian territory, in Kursk Region, where Ukrainian forces still hold positions.

As of early July, Ukraine’s counteroffensives appear to have ground to a halt. Russian troops succeeded in dislodging the Ukrainian troops from one of their two remaining footholds in Tetkino. The coming weeks will determine whether the Russian advance into Ukrainian territory will continue – or if the focus will shift to consolidating gains and expanding the border buffer zone.

Kupiansk axis: Steady pressure, encirclement in progress

Last autumn, Russian forces secured a foothold on the western bank of the Oskol River north of Kupiansk, while simultaneously advancing toward the river from the south. By late June and early July, reports surfaced suggesting that Russian units had captured Moskovka – a key stronghold along the strategic Kupiansk-Volchansk railway.

Encircling Kupiansk effectively would require cutting off two major arteries: The main supply route running west through Blagodatovka, and another road leading south through Osinovо.

What’s the situation now? Despite earlier claims, there is still no confirmed Russian presence in Moskovka, suggesting the village remains contested or under Ukrainian control.

Overall, the Kupiansk axis is viewed as a secondary theater. Operations in this area appear designed primarily to pin down Ukrainian forces, preventing them from reinforcing more critical sectors of the front.

Konstantinovka: Tightening the noose

After a successful push in May, Russian advances in the Konstantinovka sector have slowed somewhat. Russian forces are now pressing up against the city’s primary defensive lines, advancing along the Stepanovka, Aleksandro-Kalinovo, and Plescheyevka axes.

What’s unfolding follows a now-familiar Russian approach to urban warfare. First, the city is flanked and key lines of communication are brought under fire control. Then begins the grinding phase: Sustained artillery bombardment wears down the defending garrison as Russian troops close in from three directions. Over time, this pressure begins to erode the city’s defenses. At that point, Ukrainian forces face two choices – either retreat in an orderly fashion, as seen in Kurakhovo, or, if ordered to hold at all costs, risk a defensive collapse with potentially serious consequences for adjacent sectors, as happened in Avdeevka and Ugledar.

Meanwhile Russian forces are currently focused on wearing down the Ukrainian garrison. The main roads into Konstantinovka are under Russian fire control, and pressure on the flanks is steadily increasing. On the northern approach from Chasov Yar, however, progress remains limited due to difficult terrain – an issue we addressed in a previous report.

Pokrovsk: Gateway to Dnepropetrovsk

The situation around Pokrovsk mirrors that of Konstantinovka – and together, these battles may mark some of the most consequential developments of the summer campaign.

On the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk, Russian forces have advanced up to 8km toward Rodinskoe, bringing two of the three main supply routes into Pokrovsk and neighboring Mirnograd under fire control.

Further south, between Pokrovsk and Velikaya Novoselka, Russian troops achieved their most significant gains this month – pushing up to 15km across a 30-kilometer-wide front. Their advance reached the administrative boundary of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), with the village of Komar – an important Ukrainian defensive position – reportedly cleared and brought under Russian control.

On July 7, the Russian Defense Ministry announced the capture of Dachnoye, a village located on the DPR’s border and the first settlement in Ukraine’s Dnepropetrovsk Region to fall under Russian control. As part of Ukraine’s fortified defense line, securing Dachnoye marks both a tactical and symbolic milestone for the Russian advance.

Zaporozhye axis: A sudden shift in the South

After nearly a year and a half of relative calm, the southern front near the Dnepr River has erupted with renewed activity. Russian forces are now advancing along three axes in the region. Notably, they have captured Kamenskoye – a strategically significant settlement on the riverbank.

On July 11, Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov visited the forward command post of the Dnepr Group of Forces, signaling high-level attention to the area. In the coming weeks, it should become clearer whether this uptick in operations is intended to stretch Ukrainian reserves and apply pressure – or if it marks the opening phase of a broader Russian offensive in the south.