The country needs to revise rules in order to weather falling oil revenues and global trade wars, Anton Siluanov has said
Russia should brace for potential budgetary stress due to declining oil revenues and global economic instability, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has warned.
At a recent ministry meeting, Siluanov backed boosting fiscal reserves and revising an “outdated” budget rule that oil revenues exceeding a $60-per-barrel threshold are diverted to the National Wealth Fund (NWF).
Designed to shield the economy from commodity price swings, particularly in oil, Sulianov argued the fund should cover “three years of uninterrupted financing of expenditures.”
“The current global situation requires special attention to the resilience of public finances to various scenarios of global economic development,” he said on Wednesday. The main risk remains the “unfolding of trade wars,” which are cutting export opportunities for countries, including Russia.
Spending must be adjusted to reflect the “new realities,” according to the minister. “We’ll have to be more modest in our desires and ensure a greater return on every budget ruble,” he stated.
Russia’s oil and gas revenues comprise just a quarter of the federal budget, Sulianov noted, a significant reduction in dependance upon the sector. Oil and gas revenues totaled 2.64 trillion rubles ($28.4 billion) in the first quarter of 2025, down 9.8% compared to the same period in 2024, according to preliminary Finance Ministry estimates.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin also addressed the meeting, urging the ministry to focus on macroeconomic stability and prepare to react to market fluctuations.
”It is important to pay special attention to measures to prevent budget risks,” Mishustin said. “We must, of course, be prepared for changes and work out a variety of scenarios based on the current situation.”
Oil prices have accelerated their decline since early April, pressured by US trade tariffs and OPEC+’s unexpected decision to boost production. Member countries agreed to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, three times the originally planned hike of 135,000 barrels per day.
On April 9, the price of Russia’s Urals crude fell below $50 per barrel for the first time since June 2023. In March, the Finance Ministry said it expects the average oil price in 2025 to be closer to $60 per barrel, down from the budgeted $70. The Economic Development Ministry’s forecast is even lower, at $56 per barrel.
